As Valentine’s Day and Presidents’ Day weekend collide, two major films are set to capture audiences worldwide—Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World and Sony/StudioCanal’s Paddington in Peru. While romance and family-friendly entertainment will have their place, the big-screen debut of Anthony Mackie as Captain America is the main event, promising an action-packed box office performance.
A Strong Start for a New Captain America
Following the events of The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, Brave New World sees Sam Wilson officially wielding the iconic shield. Unlike Marvel’s multiverse-heavy offerings, this installment leans into the political-thriller tone of Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014). With a production budget of $180 million, the film is projected to generate a domestic opening of $80 million over the standard three-day weekend, climbing to $94 million over four days. Globally, Brave New World is expected to rake in around $190 million, including contributions from China.
The main selling points? The highly anticipated introduction of Red Hulk and Anthony Mackie’s first feature film as Captain America. With reshoots and production delays due to last year’s industry strikes, the movie finally lands in theaters after shifting from its original May 2024 release date.
Advance Ticket Sales & Global Rollout
Current presales indicate that Brave New World is tracking 10-15% behind 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($106.1 million opening) but a promising 40% ahead of Eternals (2021), which debuted at $71.2 million. By Friday, advance ticket sales should reach $20 million. The film will premiere in 4,100 theaters domestically, including premium large-format and IMAX screens, drawing a core audience of male viewers and families with young boys.
The international release begins on Wednesday in key markets such as France, South Korea, and Italy. Germany, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico follow on Thursday, with major markets like the UK, China, Spain, and Japan joining the mix on Friday. Initial projections suggest a $110 million international opening, with China contributing an estimated $20 million. However, China’s box office remains unpredictable, particularly as local animated hit Ne Zha 2 continues its unprecedented run, having already grossed over $1.2 billion.
Comparing to Past Marvel Hits
For comparison, Quantumania earned $114 million internationally during its debut weekend in 2023. Other relevant Marvel comps include:
- Doctor Strange (2016): $140 million
- Guardians of the Galaxy (2014): $95 million
- Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014): $111 million
- Thor: The Dark World (2013): $112 million
Competing Releases & Counterprogramming
While Brave New World dominates the action-adventure category, Sony’s Paddington in Peru provides family-friendly counterprogramming. The third installment in the beloved franchise has already earned $104 million overseas, with $44.7 million from the UK alone. Sony expects a $15-17 million four-day domestic opening from 3,700 locations.
Meanwhile, Universal is rolling out Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy overseas, capitalizing on Valentine’s Day audiences. With releases in 70 markets, including the UK, Australia, and Spain, the film is positioned as a strong alternative for female audiences.
Final Thoughts
Captain America: Brave New World is primed to be the latest MCU box office success, leveraging its star-studded cast, high fan anticipation, and strategic release timing. While competition exists in the form of Paddington in Peru and Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, the appeal of the MCU remains a powerful force. The question remains: Will Brave New World live up to its projected numbers, or will shifting audience trends challenge Marvel’s box office dominance?
